Blogging

Retirement calculators can help us plan and prepare to retire. When we are years away, these online tools can help us determine how much we should be saving. As we approach our time to retire, they can help us understand how much we can spend each year and which accounts should fund that spending.

Not all retirement tools, however, reach the same result. They take different approaches to what is a complex series of calculations and assumptions. One study examined five popular retirement planning software packages and found stark differences in outcomes. As a result, it recommended that individuals use “multiple programs before implementing an action plan based on the results.”

To that end, here is a list of the best retirement calculators, planners and software tools.

Best Retirement Calculators

What follows are my top 5 pics. The first three are retirement planners, allowing you to enter detailed information about your finances both before and after retirement. The final two options are more of retirement calculators. The inputs are much more limited, but these tools give you a quick estimate of when you can retire.

1. Personal Capital

Best all around retirement planner

Personal Capital is my favorite investing and retirement tool. In addition to being totally free, it’s extremely easy to use and rich in features. Once a user connects their 401k, IRA and other investment accounts, Personal Capital pulls all the data from the accounts into its Retirement Planner.

The Retirement Planner then allows users to model both income events (e.g., savings, sale of real estate, social security, pensions) and spending goals (e.g., retirement spending, travel, education). Users can also set up multiple scenarios to compare, such as retiring at different ages. Personal Capital then runs the data through a Monte Carlo simulation and reports the likelihood of the plan’s success.

Unique Feature: Users can create multiple scenarios (e.g., different retirement dates, different social security strategies) and compare how successful each will be.

---

2. New Retirement

Most detailed retirement analysis

New Retirement is not for the faint of heart. The tool, which has both a free and paid version, enables users to model just about every aspect of retirement. For example, users can model social security claiming strategies, medicare coverage, annuities and pensions.

New Retirement handles the complexity of retirement planning in two ways. First, users can follow a quick start guide, answer a few simple questions, and have a complete snapshot of their retirement readiness in under five months.

Following that, users can dive into the details of everything from future healthcare costs to retirement savings contributions. New Retirement enables users to link investment and retirement accounts or enter them manually.

New Retirement offers three plans ranging in cost from free to $396 a year.

Unique Feature: New Retirement includes a Roth IRA conversion calculator to help users determine when and how much of a traditional IRA should be converted to a Roth IRA.

---

3. OnTrajectory

OnTrajectory is quickly becoming one of my favorite retirement planners. Like New Retirement, it allows you to map out just about everything related to both saving for retirement and spending during your golden years.

It takes just seconds to get started. You’ll answer a few questions, and OnTrajectory will set up a projection of your future savings and spending. From there you can begin to enter data to fine tune every aspect of the plan.

The tool is divided into three sections–Income, Expenses and Accounts. You can link your accounts so they automatically update, or you can enter balances manually. For income, the tool accommodates everything from work to pensions to rental properties. Expenses include every type of expense imaginable, and you can group expenses to make reporting easier.

As for accounts, you can link or manually create 401k, IRA, HSA and taxable accounts. It covers 457B plans (which have specially rules), as well as 529 plans and both traditional and Roth accounts.

Once you’ve entered the data, OnTrajectory uses both Monte Carlo Analysis as well as historical market returns and inflation data to calculate the chances of retirement success. Finally, you can create and compare multiple retirement scenarios.

Unique Feature: You can change the order of accounts withdrawals are taken during retirement or let OnTrajectory calculate the most tax efficient order.

---

4. NetWorthify

NetWorthify is designed for those wanting to retire early, although it works with traditional retirements, too. Simply enter your income, annual savings and total savings, and NetWorthify estimates how long until you can retire. It’s free to use.

5. cFIREsim

Another free option that I like a lot is cFIREsim. You enter some basic information such as when you plan to retire, current savings, income, asset allocation of your investments and social security values. cFIREsim then calculates the likelihood of your success.

Retirement Calculators Worth Considering

The following retirement tools didn’t make are list, but still may be worth checking out. In some cases, I’m continuing to evaluate them, and some make make the “best of” list in the future.

• FireCalc
• T. Rowe Price
• MaxiFi Planner
• Fidelity Retirement Score
• Ultimate Retirement Calculator
• Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator
• ESPlanner
• AARP
• Fidelity Full View

Retirement Calculators Not Worth Considering

Here are retirement tools that I believe aren’t worth our time. I list them here to keep a record of what I’ve looked at and so that readers know I’ve considered and rejected these options.

• Flexible Retirement Planner

Fidelity launched its ZERO index funds in 2018 to much fanfare. As their names suggest, these funds carry no expense ratios, a first in the industry.

As great as a “free” mutual fund may sound, however, many wonder whether there is a catch. Recently a subscribe to my YouTube channel asked the following questions:

Could you please share your thoughts on Fidelity ZERO funds vs their fee based funds?Fidelity ZERO International Index Fund (FZILX)Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund (FZROX)Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index Fund (FNILX)Fidelity ZERO Extended Market Index Fund (FZIPX)

Is FNILX + FZIPX = FZROX ?

ZERO funds have no fees, but other than cost, do you see any reason why one should invest in fee based instead of zero funds?

If you could please create video and share your thoughts, that would be very helpful.

Let’s dive into the details to get a better understanding of the Fidelity ZERO funds.

4 Fidelity Zero Funds

The ZERO funds consist of four index funds. These funds charge no fees in the form of an Expense Ratio, although they do pass on transaction costs to investors. There are also no minimum investment requirements.

The catch, if you want to call it that, is that the funds track proprietary indexes Fidelity created. That means, for example, that the Fidelity ZERO Large Cap index fund does NOT track the S&P 500, as one might expect.

Here are the details on each fund’s tracking index. (Note that Fidelity does not offer a ZERO fund for bonds.)

Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index Fund (FNILX)

The Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index Fund tracks the Fidelity U.S. Large Cap Index. The index is a float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index. That simply means it tracks companies based on the number and value of shares outstanding in the market. Its focus is on the U.S. large capitalization equity market.

The index tracks the top 500 companies. It can, however, have fewer companies based on liquidity and investing screens that Fidelity uses. For example, the index (and the other two U.S. indexes discussed below) exclude companies with capitalizations under $75 million or with limited trading volume.

It can also have more than 500 stocks if some companies have multiple share classes. Fidelity rebalances the index annually on the third Friday in February (so mark your calendars!).

The index is similar to the S&P 500 index, but there are some differences, as we’ll see below.

Fidelity ZERO Extended Market Index Fund (FZIPX)

The Fidelity ZERO Extended Market Index Fund (FZIPX) tracks the Fidelity U.S. Extended Investable Market Index. Its designed to track U.S. mid- and small-cap stocks. It is a subset of the Fidelity U.S. Total Investable Market Index (see below), excluding the 500 largest companies.

Perhaps the closest comparison of this index is the the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. The primary difference is that the Fidelity index is limited to 2,500 companies, whereas the Dow Jones index has just under 3,500 companies.

Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund (FZROX)

The Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund (FZROX) tracks the Fidelity U.S. Total Investable Market Index. This index is effectively a combination of the Large Cap and Extended Market indexes described above. As such, it is limited to 3,000 companies.

Its closest comparison is the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index. It’s not an exact match, however, as the Down Jones index tracks nearly 4,000 companies.

Fidelity ZERO International Index Fund (FZILX)

Finally, the Fidelity ZERO International Index Fund (FZILX) tracks the Fidelity Global ex. U.S. Index. Fidelity designed this index to track mid- and large-cap companies headquartered outside the U.S. The index is created by selecting the top 90% of stocks as measured by market cap in each country.

This index is similar to the MSCI ACWI Ex USA Index. This index, however, holds about 4,700 companies, while the free version holds about 2,300 companies.

How Fidelity ZERO Funds Compare

While free funds offer an initial appeal, one wonders if investors are getting what they paid for. Are the Fidelity indexes used by the ZERO funds generating the same or better returns as the more widely used indexes? This is particularly important given that other Fidelity index funds, while they charge a fee, are still very close to $0 in cost (generally 6 basis points or less).

To getting a better understanding, I compared each of Fidelity’s ZERO funds with a close counterpart offered by Fidelity.

FNILX vs FXAIX

Fidelity’s Large Cap ZERO fund is arguably the closest to its most comparable index, the S&P 500. A comparison of the fund to Fidelity’s S&P 500 index fund (FXAIX) in Morningstar shows very similar style boxes and the same top 10 holdings. The notable difference is in the percentage held of each of the top 10 companies (the ZERO fund is on the left in each snapshot).

Performance data on the ZERO funds is limited as the funds were launched in 2018. Nevertheless, since then the ZERO Large Cap fund has outperformed Fidelity’s S&P 500 index fund by substantially more than its 1.5 basis point fee:

Whether the ZERO fund will continue to outperform the S&P 500 index only time can tell. As you’ll see below, however, the other ZERO funds have performed as well.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/315911750 (FXAIX)

FZIPX vs FSMAX

Fidelity’s Extended Market Index fund (FSMAX) tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market index. Think of it as everything except the companies in the S&P 500. As such, it covers about 1,000 more companies the Fidelity’s proprietary completion index used for the ZERO extended fund. Its cost is just 3.5 basis points.

In the short time FZIPX as been available, it has significantly underperformed FSMAX even with the same volatility. Here are the comparisons:

FZROX vs FSKAX

Fidelity’s Total Market Index fund (FSKAX) is the closest comparable to its ZERO Total Market fund. FSKAX charges just 1.5 basis points and gives investors exposure to over 3,700 stocks. The ZERO fund, in contrast, holds about 2,600 equity holdings.

While returns thus far have been nearly identical, FSKAX has managed to edge out the ZERO fund by 2 basis points. The comparable performance is likely driven by the similar returns amongst the larges U.S. companies in these cap-weighted funds.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/315911693 (FSKAX)

FZILX vs FTIHX

Fidelity’s Total International Index (FTIHX) charges 6 basis points and tracks the MSCI ACWI ex USA Investable Market index. The style box for this and the ZERO International Index are nearly identical. The free fund, however, hold just under 2,400 stocks while FTIHX holds over 4,700 stocks. And FTIHX has edged out the ZERO fund in performance thus far.

Final Thoughts

The cost of most index funds have fallen dramatically over the last few decades. Today one can invest in an index fund for 10 basis points or less. In many cases, a fund costs less than 5 basis points. For that reason, Fidelity ZERO funds seem more like a marketing strategy than a product that meets investors’ needs.

Certainly free beats even a very small cost. The problem is that fidelity achieves a 0% Expense Ratio by tracking its own proprietary indexes. I’m not sure that’s worth saving a few basis points each year. And thus far, with perhaps the exception of the Large Cap ZERO fund, these funds have trailed their Fidelity counterparts by more that the cost savings.

That said, I would have no reservations investing in one of these funds in a 401k if it were my best option.

Resources

• https://www.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/investing-ideas/index-funds
• https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/mutual-funds/Fidelity_mkt_cap_weighted_methodology.pdf

In this article, we’re going to look at the differences between exchange traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds. In past videos (check out my YouTube channel) I’ve mentioned that for long-term buy and hold investors, I don’t see any reason that we need to bother with ETFs. That’s sparked some emails and comments from folks wanting to understand why I believe that for most investors, all you need are mutual funds.

We’re going to start by looking at mutual funds. And then we’ll turn to ETFs. And then we’ll get into the differences and why I don’t think ETFs are necessary for most of us.

Mutual Funds

So I want to begin by looking at the Vanguard 500 index fund (VFIAX). Here’s a snapshot of the fund from Morningstar (it’s one of my favorite investing tools).

This is an example of a mutual fund. To better understand mutual funds let’s look at the problem they were designed to solve. Before mutual funds, if you wanted a diversified portfolio you had to research companies and governments and then buy enough stocks and bonds to create a diversified portfolio. It was very time consuming and expensive. You could hire a broker, which many people did, which just added to the cost.

Mutual funds made it easier and less expensive for investors to create a diversified portfolio. Rather than having to go out and research all these companies, you can just invest in a few mutual funds and get instant diversification. Your money is divided up among hundreds, if not thousands of stocks and bonds at a relatively low cost.

Actively Managed vs Passively Managed (Index) Funds

There are two types of mutual funds–actively managed and passively managed.

An actively managed fund is one where the management of the fund picks specific stocks or bonds based on fundamental or technical analysis. A passively managed fund, also called an index fund, simply tracks an index such as the S&P 500.

How Mutual Funds are Bought and Sold

There are two important thing to understand about mutual funds. First, shares of a mutual fund are bought and sold directly with the mutual fund company. If you want to invest in a mutual fund, like our Vanguard 500 fund above, you buy directly from Vanguard. Vanguard issues you shares of the fund and invests your money in the underlying assets of the mutual fund.

In contrast, when you buy a share of stock, the transaction is with another investor. This distinction is going to become important when we get to ETFs.

Second, with a mutual fund, you always pay what’s called the Net Asset Value (NAV). The NAV represents the value of the stocks and bonds the fund owns. NAV is reported on a per share basis. You can see in the above screenshot that the NAV for the Vanguard fund was $342.68.

Unlike a stock price that fluctuates throughout the trading day, a mutual fund’s NAV is adjusted just once after the market closes. When you buy or sell shares of a mutual fund, the price you pay or receive is determined after the market closes. That means, as a practical matter, that when we submit an order to buy or sell shares of a mutual fund, we won’t know the price until after the market closes. The price, however, will always be the NAV–no more, no less.

Exchange-traded Funds

Let’s turn to exchange traded funds or ETFs. This screen shot is of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (ticker: VOO) taken from Morningstar.

It is virtually identical to the mutual fund above in several respects.

Just like a mutual fund, it provides a low cost way to achieve easy diversification. This Vanguard ETF, just like the mutual fund, invests in 500 of the largest US companies. ETFs are also inexpensive, just like index funds.

There are, however, some significant differences. The best way to understand these differences is to understand why ETS exist in the first place. If they’re so similar to index mutual funds, why in the world do we have them? The answer is that some investors want the ability to trade a mutual fund in ways similar to trading a stock. An ETF enables them to do that. An ETF is like taking a mutual fund, but giving it the ability to trade like a stock.

So what does that actually mean? Well, the first thing is that just like buying or selling a stock, the price of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, or any ETF for that matter, fluctuates throughout the day when the market is open. That’s why, in the above screenshot of VOO, you see the Day Range, Opening Price and so on. You also see a bid/ask spread, just like you would for an individual stock.

As a result, an investor can short an ETF just like shorting a stock. You can also buy and sell options on an ETF. That’s not possible with a mutual fund. It also allows you to sell or buy the ETF at the price that exists during the trading day. So if I want to buy VOO right now, you can see the bid/ask I could buy it at. I know what price I’m going to get at least within a couple of pennies. If I buy the mutual fund, I’ll pay the NAV as calculated after the close of the market.

ETFs vs Mutual Funds

	ETFs	Mutual Funds
Low Cost	Yes	Yes, for index funds
Diversification	Yes	Yes
Trades at NAV	No	Yes
Trades like a stock	Yes	No
Options trading	Yes	No
Required minimum investment	No	Sometimes
Automated monthly investments	No	Yes

Why Mutual Funds are Better than ETFs for Long-term Investors

At first glance ETFs may seem like the better deal. You get all the benefits of a mutual fund, along with some extra trading features of a stock. Not so fast.

First, long-term buy and hold investors don’t need the features ETFs offer. We have no need to short a stock or an ETF. We have no reason to buy or sell call or put options on an ETf.

Second, buying ETFs adds complexity because of the bid/ask spread. In the case of VOO, the bid/ask spread is not significant–Just a few pennies. For other ETFs, it can be much wider . The result is that we would pay more than NAV when we buy and receive less than NAV when we sell. There’s simply no good reason for long-term investors to take this haircut.

Finally, if you want to set up monthly contributions, mutual funds are the answer. You can automate contributions or withdrawals to or from an ETF.

VFIAX vs VOO

To underscore why EFTs are not necessary, let’s compare VFIAX and VOO. Their portfolios are identical. Since they both track the S&P 500, it makes sense that they would hold the same investments. For example, they both have 99.04% in U.S. equities. The both have a P/E ratio of 19.59. The price to book is 33.17 and the price to sales 2.31% for both.

Now, if we look at the expense ratios we see a small difference. The mutual fund is four basis points (0.04%), while the ETF is three basis points (0.03%). So I suppose one could say why not go with the least expensive option, even if it is just one basis point.

There are two reasons. First, you still have to deal with the bid/ask spread, it’s not significant, but it will add costs as you buy and sell above and below the NAV.

Second, we need to look at each fund’s performance on an after-fee basis. A comparison of performance from Morningstar shows that the mutual fund more often than not actually outperforms the ETF. It’s not by much, just a few basis points most years. But it’s enough to erase the one basis point difference in expenses.

When an ETF may be a Better than a Mutual Fund

I will concede that there are a few times when it may make sense for long-term, buy and hold investor to consider an ETF. The first reason deals with the required minimum initial investment of mutual funds. VFIAX above has a minimum investment of $3,000. In the case of the ETF, there is no minimum investment. This could be a hurdle for some. In my view, one should save up the $3,000 and then invest. Alternatively, there are other S&P 500 index funds that have no minimum investment, such as those offered by Fidelity.

Second, you could want exposure to certain very unique asset classes where ETFs are the better option. A friend of mine likes to invest in country-specific ETFs rather than developed and emerging market funds. For the vast majority of investors, however, this is not necessary.

If you have already built a portfolio of ETFs, I’m not suggesting you should exchange them for mutual funds or that you’ve made a mistake. As we’ve seen from the Vanguard funds, they are virtually identical in terms of fees and portfolio. Certainly, there’s no reason to make any changes if it’s going to trigger tax liability in a taxable account. But for those that are just beginning or thinking about this question, I think for most buy and hold long-term investors, mutual funds are our ideal.

ETFs vs Mutual Funds Video